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United Parcel Service Inc
🇺🇸 UPS · NYSE/NASDAQ · US9113121068
Infrastructure
Scores
Key Metrics
Powered by EODHDP/E (TTM)
19.0
P/E (Price-to-Earnings)Shows how much investors pay for each $1 of profit. We display the TTM P/E (Trailing Twelve Months) which uses actual earnings from the last 4 quarters. This is more reliable than Forward P/E which uses analyst estimates.
Net Debt/EBITDA (TTM)
2.3x
Latest quarter: 13.4x
Net Debt / EBITDAA leverage ratio showing how many years of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) it would take to repay net debt. EBITDA approximates operating cash generation. Lower ratios (e.g., <3x) are generally safer; higher (e.g., >5x) may indicate more financial risk.
Latest quarter (2026-06-30): 13.4x
The quarterly value can spike when quarterly EBITDA is very low (e.g., one-time charges).
Quick guide: <2x manageable, >4x can be risky (sector-dependent).
ROE
29.6%
ROE (Return on Equity)A profitability measure: how much profit is generated from shareholders’ equity. Higher isn’t always better if it comes from high debt.
EV/EBITDA
10.3x
EV/EBITDAA valuation ratio that compares total business value (including debt) to EBITDA. Lower can mean cheaper, but context matters.
Dividend Summary
Powered by EODHDDividend Yield (Fwd)
6.26%
TTM: 6.38%
Dividend YieldThe Forward yield (Fwd) shows the next announced annual dividend / current price — what you'd earn going forward. The Trailing yield (TTM) in the tooltip shows dividends actually paid in the last 12 months. Forward is shown as primary because it reflects the company's current commitment to shareholders.
Forward Yield (estimated): 6.26%
Trailing Yield (TTM, last 12 months): 6.38%
Payout Ratio (Fwd)
94.4% TTM
Payout RatioDividends as a percentage of earnings. The Forward payout (Fwd) uses the announced dividend divided by actual past earnings (TTM) — it tells you if the company can afford what it promised. Very high payouts can be risky, especially if profits fall.
Announced dividend / actual earnings (TTM)
Dividend History
EODHD Dividends API| Status | Type | Decl. Date | Ex-Div Date | Pay Date | Currency | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast* | Quarterly | — | 17 Aug 2027 | — | USD | 1.64 |
| Forecast* | Quarterly | — | 18 May 2027 | — | USD | 1.64 |
| Forecast* | Quarterly | — | 17 Feb 2027 | — | USD | 1.64 |
| Forecast* | Quarterly | — | 17 Nov 2026 | — | USD | 1.64 |
| Declared | Quarterly | 05 Aug 2026 | 17 Aug 2026 | 03 Sep 2026 | USD | 1.64 |
| Paid | Quarterly | 06 May 2026 | 18 May 2026 | 04 Jun 2026 | USD | 1.64 |
| Paid | Quarterly | 27 Jan 2026 | 17 Feb 2026 | 05 Mar 2026 | USD | 1.64 |
| Paid | Quarterly | 06 Nov 2025 | 17 Nov 2025 | 04 Dec 2025 | USD | 1.64 |
* Extrapolated from past dividend history. Not an official announcement — treat as an estimate, not a confirmed date or amount.
Summary
UPS is a high-quality global logistics leader operating an essential duopoly network, currently navigating a cyclical margin squeeze from front-loaded labor costs and volume normalization. With a robust 6.38% dividend yield and structural tailwinds protecting its operating model, the current valuation represents a compelling entry point for income investors. Worth considering for new positions.
Sector Context
Integrated Freight & Logistics. UPS operates a highly capital-intensive, essential global duopoly network. While cyclical to economic volumes, high barriers to entry and massive switching costs protect its long-term pricing power, making it a staple for DGI portfolios when acquired at a discount.
Temporary Opportunity Identified
Margin compression and inflated payout ratios are primarily driven by cyclical volume normalization, the unwinding of the core Amazon relationship, and heavily front-loaded labor costs from the recent Teamsters contract. These costs will smooth out over the contract's duration.
📊 Strategy Analysis
- • Compelling valuation and historically elevated dividend yield of 6.38%, backed by a strong shareholder return profile (8.34% total shareholder yield).
- • Elite profitability metrics including a 29.6% ROE, demonstrating pricing power despite cyclical volume softness.
- • Structural tailwinds from W-2 classification laws that insulate UPS's unionized model while hurting gig-reliant competitors.
- • Trading near the bottom of its fair value estimate (currently $102.30 vs fair value P/FFO lower bound of $102.43) with a favorable forward P/E of 14.16.
⚠ What to Watch
- • Elevated forward payout ratio of 122.1% and extremely tight FCF coverage (1.01x) indicate dividend growth is likely to remain stalled until earnings recover.
- • Net margins have contracted to 6.3% (down from a 5-year average of 9.0%), reflecting the heavy near-term burden of front-loaded union labor costs and cyclical normalization.
- • Negative 5-year CAGRs in both revenue (-1.8%) and EPS (-14.9%) highlight ongoing top-and-bottom-line headwinds.
📊 Historical Trends (10 Years)
Powered by EODHDThese charts show how key metrics have evolved over the past decade, helping you identify if the company is improving or deteriorating.
Debt Evolution (Net Debt / EBITDA)
Lower values are better. A declining trend indicates the company is reducing its debt (deleveraging).
Revenue & Earnings Growth
Consistent growth in revenueRevenue
The money a company brings in from selling its products or services. It’s the top line before costs. (blue) and earningsEarnings (Profit)
What’s left after expenses. Positive earnings mean the business made a profit; negative means a loss. (green) indicates a healthy business. Look for upward trends and recoveries after temporary dips.
Dividend Sustainability (FCF vs Dividends Paid)
Free cash flowFree Cash Flow
Cash left after the company pays for running the business and maintaining it. Often used to fund dividends, pay debt, or buy back shares. (FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., blue) should cover dividends paidDividends Paid
Cash the company paid out to shareholders. It’s not guaranteed and can change over time. (green). If dividends consistently exceed FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., the dividend may be at risk.
Analysis date: 2026-08-22
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.