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Northern Oil & Gas Inc
🇺🇸 NOG · NYSE/NASDAQ · US6655313079
Energy
USD 17.75 price at analysis
Scores
Key Metrics
Powered by EODHDP/E (TTM)
N/A
P/E (Price-to-Earnings)Shows how much investors pay for each $1 of profit. We display the TTM P/E (Trailing Twelve Months) which uses actual earnings from the last 4 quarters. This is more reliable than Forward P/E which uses analyst estimates.
TTM period through: 2026-03-31
Why N/A?
EPS (TTM) = -6.35 (negative or zero)
Cannot calculate P/E with negative earnings.
Forward P/E (estimated): 4.2
Based on analyst estimates
Reference: Provider P/E (Forward): 4.2
Net Debt/EBITDA (TTM)
15.9x
Net Debt / EBITDAA leverage ratio showing how many years of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) it would take to repay net debt. EBITDA approximates operating cash generation. Lower ratios (e.g., <3x) are generally safer; higher (e.g., >5x) may indicate more financial risk.
TTM through: 2026-03-31
The quarterly value can spike when quarterly EBITDA is very low (e.g., one-time charges).
Quick guide: <2x manageable, >4x can be risky (sector-dependent).
ROE
-29.8%
ROE (Return on Equity)A profitability measure: how much profit is generated from shareholders’ equity. Higher isn’t always better if it comes from high debt.
EV/EBITDA
27.8x
EV/EBITDAA valuation ratio that compares total business value (including debt) to EBITDA. Lower can mean cheaper, but context matters.
Dividend Summary
Powered by EODHDDividend Yield (Fwd)
10.14%
TTM: 10.25%
Dividend YieldThe Forward yield (Fwd) shows the next announced annual dividend / current price — what you'd earn going forward. The Trailing yield (TTM) in the tooltip shows dividends actually paid in the last 12 months. Forward is shown as primary because it reflects the company's current commitment to shareholders.
Forward Yield (estimated): 10.14%
Trailing Yield (TTM, last 12 months): 10.25%
Payout Ratio (Fwd)
447.4% TTM
Payout RatioDividends as a percentage of earnings. The Forward payout (Fwd) uses the announced dividend divided by actual past earnings (TTM) — it tells you if the company can afford what it promised. Very high payouts can be risky, especially if profits fall.
Announced dividend / actual earnings (TTM)
Payout (TTM): 447.4%
Cash Flow Payout (TTM): 12.4%
FCF Coverage (TTM): -4.25x
Growth Streak
3 yrs
Consec. increases
Dividend History
EODHD Dividends API| Status | Type | Decl. Date | Ex-Div Date | Pay Date | Currency | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast* | Quarterly | — | 29 Jun 2027 | — | USD | 0.45 |
| Forecast* | Quarterly | — | 30 Mar 2027 | — | USD | 0.45 |
| Forecast* | Quarterly | — | 30 Dec 2026 | — | USD | 0.45 |
| Forecast* | Quarterly | — | 29 Sep 2026 | — | USD | 0.45 |
| Declared | Quarterly | 13 May 2026 | 29 Jun 2026 | 31 Jul 2026 | USD | 0.45 |
| Paid | Quarterly | 24 Feb 2026 | 30 Mar 2026 | 30 Apr 2026 | USD | 0.45 |
| Paid | Quarterly | 05 Nov 2025 | 30 Dec 2025 | 30 Jan 2026 | USD | 0.45 |
| Paid | Quarterly | 01 Aug 2025 | 29 Sep 2025 | 31 Oct 2025 | USD | 0.45 |
* Extrapolated from past dividend history. Not an official announcement — treat as an estimate, not a confirmed date or amount.
² Type not provided by EODHD — inferred from historical payment data.
Summary
While Northern Oil & Gas offers a compelling 10.25% yield and an artificially depressed valuation due to temporary non-cash accounting impairments, its cyclical E&P business model creates a structural mismatch for conservative dividend strategies. The combination of pure commodity exposure, current negative free cash flow, and energy transition risks makes this unsuitable for a core dividend portfolio seeking predictability. Not recommended for new positions, as better opportunities exist in more stable, essential service sectors.
Sector Context
Northern Oil & Gas operates as a pure-play, non-operated upstream exploration and production company, acquiring fractional working interests in oil and gas wells alongside primary operators. While its non-operated model insulates it from direct operational overhead, the exploration and production sector remains highly cyclical and structurally exposed to long-term energy transition risks, making it less suitable for investors seeking highly predictable, 'forever' dividend income.
Temporary Opportunity Identified
GAAP earnings are currently being artificially depressed by significant non-cash ceiling-test impairment charges and derivative mark-to-market losses driven by oil price volatility.
📊 Strategy Analysis
- • Deeply discounted forward P/E of 4.16 and robust 10.25% dividend yield present a highly attractive valuation for risk-tolerant investors.
- • Recent GAAP net losses are entirely driven by temporary non-cash ceiling-test impairments and derivative mark-to-market adjustments, which mask strong underlying operational performance.
- • The unique non-operated business model structurally insulates the company from scaling administrative overhead and field-level compliance costs that burden traditional operators.
⚠ What to Watch
- • As a pure-play E&P commodity price taker, cash flows are inherently cyclical and misaligned with the stable, predictable revenues required for conservative dividend strategies.
- • Currently reporting negative Free Cash Flow (-$311M), resulting in negative FCF dividend coverage (-4.25%) as capital expenditures outpace operating cash flows.
- • Long-term structural exposure to the energy transition and potential regulatory loss of critical tax incentives (IDC and depletion allowances).
📊 Historical Trends (10 Years)
Powered by EODHDThese charts show how key metrics have evolved over the past decade, helping you identify if the company is improving or deteriorating.
Debt Evolution (Net Debt / EBITDA)
Lower values are better. A declining trend indicates the company is reducing its debt (deleveraging).
Revenue & Earnings Growth
Consistent growth in revenueRevenue
The money a company brings in from selling its products or services. It’s the top line before costs. (blue) and earningsEarnings (Profit)
What’s left after expenses. Positive earnings mean the business made a profit; negative means a loss. (green) indicates a healthy business. Look for upward trends and recoveries after temporary dips.
Dividend Sustainability (FCF vs Dividends Paid)
Free cash flowFree Cash Flow
Cash left after the company pays for running the business and maintaining it. Often used to fund dividends, pay debt, or buy back shares. (FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., blue) should cover dividends paidDividends Paid
Cash the company paid out to shareholders. It’s not guaranteed and can change over time. (green). If dividends consistently exceed FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., the dividend may be at risk.
Analysis date: 2026-07-04
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.