Northern Oil & Gas Inc
🇺🇸 NOG · NYSE/NASDAQ · US6655313079
Energy
USD 27.02 price at analysis
Scores
Key Metrics
Powered by EODHDP/E (TTM)
69.2
P/E (Price-to-Earnings)Shows how much investors pay for each $1 of profit. We display the TTM P/E (Trailing Twelve Months) which uses actual earnings from the last 4 quarters. This is more reliable than Forward P/E which uses analyst estimates.
Calculation: 27.02 ÷ 0.39 = 69.2
TTM period through: 2025-12-31
Forward P/E (estimated): 10.8
Based on analyst estimates
Reference: Provider P/E (Trailing): 69.1
Yield (Fwd)
6.66%
Dividend YieldThe Forward yield (Fwd) shows the next announced annual dividend / current price — what you'd earn going forward. The Trailing yield (TTM) in the tooltip shows dividends actually paid in the last 12 months. Forward is shown as primary because it reflects the company's current commitment to shareholders.
Trailing Yield (TTM): 6.64%
Net Debt/EBITDA (TTM)
2.3x
Latest quarter: 15.0x
Net Debt / EBITDAA leverage ratio showing how many years of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) it would take to repay net debt. EBITDA approximates operating cash generation. Lower ratios (e.g., <3x) are generally safer; higher (e.g., >5x) may indicate more financial risk.
TTM through: 2025-12-31
Latest quarter (2025-12-31): 15.0x
The quarterly value can spike when quarterly EBITDA is very low (e.g., one-time charges).
Quick guide: <2x manageable, >4x can be risky (sector-dependent).
Payout (Fwd)
461.2%
Payout RatioDividends as a percentage of earnings. The Forward payout (Fwd) uses the announced dividend divided by actual past earnings (TTM) — it tells you if the company can afford what it promised. Very high payouts can be risky, especially if profits fall.
Announced dividend / actual earnings (TTM)
Payout (TTM): 447.4%
Cash Flow Payout (TTM): 11.5%
FCF Coverage (TTM): 1.46x
ROE
1.7%
ROE (Return on Equity)A profitability measure: how much profit is generated from shareholders’ equity. Higher isn’t always better if it comes from high debt.
EV/EBITDA
2.6x
EV/EBITDAA valuation ratio that compares total business value (including debt) to EBITDA. Lower can mean cheaper, but context matters.
Summary
While Northern Oil & Gas offers an attractive 6.6% yield and operates with strong underlying cash flows masked by temporary accounting impairments, its cyclical pure-play E&P model creates a structural mismatch for conservative dividend strategies. The company's history of severe dividend cuts during commodity downturns highlights the payout's vulnerability to oil price shocks. Not recommended for core 'forever' dividend positions, as better long-term income stability exists in more predictable sectors or integrated energy majors.
Sector Context
Northern Oil & Gas is an independent exploration and production (E&P) company that invests in non-operated minority working and mineral interests in oil and gas properties. In the context of dividend investing, pure E&P companies are highly cyclical 'price takers' exposed to extreme commodity volatility, making them vastly inferior to integrated oil majors or stable midstream operators for reliable long-term income.
Temporary Opportunity Identified
Significant non-cash impairment charges ($587M+ over recent quarters) triggered by full-cost accounting 'ceiling tests' have caused massive GAAP net losses, artificially inflating the P/E ratio and masking strong operational cash flow.
📊 Strategy Analysis
- • Forward P/E of 10.8x and EV/EBITDA of 2.64x suggest attractive valuation, with the high TTM P/E (69.2x) artificially inflated by recent non-cash accounting impairments.
- • Strong underlying cash generation with a cash flow payout ratio of just 11.5%, indicating the current 6.6% dividend yield is well-covered by operations despite recent GAAP net losses.
- • Net Debt/EBITDA has improved to a healthy 2.27x, down from 3.9x in 2019, demonstrating responsible deleveraging and balance sheet strengthening.
⚠ What to Watch
- • As a pure non-operated exploration and production (E&P) company, it is a cyclical price-taker lacking the predictable cash flows required for a 'forever' dividend strategy.
- • Track record of severe dividend cuts during industry downturns (92.9% cut in 2019, 56.4% cut in 2020) proves the payout is highly vulnerable to commodity price shocks.
- • Long-term energy transition risks and the lack of an integrated refining business model make the business structurally vulnerable to shifts in global fossil fuel demand.
📊 Historical Trends (10 Years)
Powered by EODHDThese charts show how key metrics have evolved over the past decade, helping you identify if the company is improving or deteriorating.
Debt Evolution (Net Debt / EBITDA)
Lower values are better. A declining trend indicates the company is reducing its debt (deleveraging).
Revenue & Earnings Growth
Consistent growth in revenueRevenue
The money a company brings in from selling its products or services. It’s the top line before costs. (blue) and earningsEarnings (Profit)
What’s left after expenses. Positive earnings mean the business made a profit; negative means a loss. (green) indicates a healthy business. Look for upward trends and recoveries after temporary dips.
Dividend Sustainability (FCF vs Dividends Paid)
Free cash flowFree Cash Flow
Cash left after the company pays for running the business and maintaining it. Often used to fund dividends, pay debt, or buy back shares. (FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., blue) should cover dividends paidDividends Paid
Cash the company paid out to shareholders. It’s not guaranteed and can change over time. (green). If dividends consistently exceed FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., the dividend may be at risk.
Analysis date: 2026-04-11
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.