Northern Oil & Gas Inc
🇺🇸 NOG · NYSE/NASDAQ · US6655313079
Energy
USD 23.75 price at analysis
Scores
Key Metrics
Powered by EODHDP/E (TTM)
N/A
P/E (Price-to-Earnings)Shows how much investors pay for each $1 of profit. We display the TTM P/E (Trailing Twelve Months) which uses actual earnings from the last 4 quarters. This is more reliable than Forward P/E which uses analyst estimates.
TTM period through: 2026-03-31
Why N/A?
EPS (TTM) = -6.35 (negative or zero)
Cannot calculate P/E with negative earnings.
Forward P/E (estimated): 5.9
Based on analyst estimates
Reference: Provider P/E (Forward): 5.9
Yield (Fwd)
7.58%
Dividend YieldThe Forward yield (Fwd) shows the next announced annual dividend / current price — what you'd earn going forward. The Trailing yield (TTM) in the tooltip shows dividends actually paid in the last 12 months. Forward is shown as primary because it reflects the company's current commitment to shareholders.
Trailing Yield (TTM): 7.48%
Div. Growth (5Y CAGR)
16.9%
Growth Streak
4 yrs
Consecutive years of increase
Net Debt/EBITDA (TTM)
2.6x
Latest quarter: 7.1x
Net Debt / EBITDAA leverage ratio showing how many years of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) it would take to repay net debt. EBITDA approximates operating cash generation. Lower ratios (e.g., <3x) are generally safer; higher (e.g., >5x) may indicate more financial risk.
TTM through: 2026-03-31
Latest quarter (2026-03-31): 7.1x
The quarterly value can spike when quarterly EBITDA is very low (e.g., one-time charges).
Quick guide: <2x manageable, >4x can be risky (sector-dependent).
Payout (TTM)
447.4%
Payout RatioDividends as a percentage of earnings. The Forward payout (Fwd) uses the announced dividend divided by actual past earnings (TTM) — it tells you if the company can afford what it promised. Very high payouts can be risky, especially if profits fall.
Cash Flow Payout (TTM): 12.4%
FCF Coverage (TTM): -4.25x
ROE
-29.8%
ROE (Return on Equity)A profitability measure: how much profit is generated from shareholders’ equity. Higher isn’t always better if it comes from high debt.
EV/EBITDA
31.6x
EV/EBITDAA valuation ratio that compares total business value (including debt) to EBITDA. Lower can mean cheaper, but context matters.
Summary
Northern Oil & Gas is an independent energy company focused on non-operated exploration and production. While the stock offers an attractive 7.5% yield and robust operating cash flows currently masked by temporary non-cash accounting impairments, its cyclical business model creates a structural mismatch for conservative dividend strategies. The history of severe dividend cuts during commodity downturns and long-term energy transition risks make this unsuitable for new positions despite the appealing valuation.
Sector Context
Northern Oil & Gas is an independent energy company focused on non-operated exploration and production assets. In the context of dividend investing, the pure-play E&P sector is highly cyclical and vulnerable to commodity price swings, making it structurally incompatible with strategies requiring highly predictable, recession-resistant cash flows over decades.
Temporary Opportunity Identified
GAAP net losses are driven by significant non-cash mark-to-market derivative losses and 'ceiling test' impairment charges tied to lower oil prices, rather than fundamental operational failure.
📊 Strategy Analysis
- • Recent GAAP net losses are driven by temporary, non-cash ceiling test impairments and derivative mark-to-market impacts, masking strong operating cash flows of $323.6 million.
- • The trailing dividend yield of 7.48% appears attractive, supported by a low cash flow payout ratio of 12.39%.
- • Net Debt/EBITDA of 2.6x represents a significant improvement from historical levels (3.9x in 2019), showing successful deleveraging efforts.
⚠ What to Watch
- • As a pure-play non-operated exploration and production (E&P) company, it is a cyclical price-taker lacking the predictable cash flows required for a conservative dividend strategy.
- • A track record of severe dividend cuts during industry downturns (92.9% cut in 2019, 56.4% cut in 2020) proves the payout is highly vulnerable to commodity price shocks.
- • Long-term energy transition risks make the underlying pure-play fossil fuel business structurally vulnerable over a multi-decade horizon.
📊 Historical Trends (10 Years)
Powered by EODHDThese charts show how key metrics have evolved over the past decade, helping you identify if the company is improving or deteriorating.
Debt Evolution (Net Debt / EBITDA)
Lower values are better. A declining trend indicates the company is reducing its debt (deleveraging).
Revenue & Earnings Growth
Consistent growth in revenueRevenue
The money a company brings in from selling its products or services. It’s the top line before costs. (blue) and earningsEarnings (Profit)
What’s left after expenses. Positive earnings mean the business made a profit; negative means a loss. (green) indicates a healthy business. Look for upward trends and recoveries after temporary dips.
Dividend Sustainability (FCF vs Dividends Paid)
Free cash flowFree Cash Flow
Cash left after the company pays for running the business and maintaining it. Often used to fund dividends, pay debt, or buy back shares. (FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., blue) should cover dividends paidDividends Paid
Cash the company paid out to shareholders. It’s not guaranteed and can change over time. (green). If dividends consistently exceed FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., the dividend may be at risk.
Analysis date: 2026-05-23
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.