Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA
🇪🇸 MRL.MC · Madrid · ES0105025003
Real Estate
EUR 14.52 price at analysis
Scores
Key Metrics
Powered by EODHDP/E (TTM)
10.4
P/E (Price-to-Earnings)Shows how much investors pay for each $1 of profit. We display the TTM P/E (Trailing Twelve Months) which uses actual earnings from the last 4 quarters. This is more reliable than Forward P/E which uses analyst estimates.
Calculation: 14.52 ÷ 1.40 = 10.4
TTM period through: 2025-12-31
Forward P/E (estimated): 25.5
Based on analyst estimates
Reference: Provider P/E (Trailing): 10.4
Yield (Fwd)
2.89%
Dividend YieldThe Forward yield (Fwd) shows the next announced annual dividend / current price — what you'd earn going forward. The Trailing yield (TTM) in the tooltip shows dividends actually paid in the last 12 months. Forward is shown as primary because it reflects the company's current commitment to shareholders.
Net Debt/EBITDA (TTM)
4.0x
Latest quarter: 15.7x
Net Debt / EBITDAA leverage ratio showing how many years of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) it would take to repay net debt. EBITDA approximates operating cash generation. Lower ratios (e.g., <3x) are generally safer; higher (e.g., >5x) may indicate more financial risk.
TTM through: 2025-12-31
Latest quarter (2025-12-31): 15.7x
The quarterly value can spike when quarterly EBITDA is very low (e.g., one-time charges).
Quick guide: <2x manageable, >4x can be risky (sector-dependent).
Payout (Fwd)
30.1%
Payout RatioDividends as a percentage of earnings. The Forward payout (Fwd) uses the announced dividend divided by actual past earnings (TTM) — it tells you if the company can afford what it promised. Very high payouts can be risky, especially if profits fall.
Announced dividend / actual earnings (TTM)
Payout (TTM): 15.7%
Cash Flow Payout (TTM): 29.7%
FCF Coverage (TTM): 3.28x
ROE
10.1%
ROE (Return on Equity)A profitability measure: how much profit is generated from shareholders’ equity. Higher isn’t always better if it comes from high debt.
EV/EBITDA
13.5x
EV/EBITDAA valuation ratio that compares total business value (including debt) to EBITDA. Lower can mean cheaper, but context matters.
Summary
Merlin Properties is a well-managed Spanish real estate operator executing a strategic pivot toward high-growth data centers. While the traditional real estate portfolio remains robust, the recent 10% equity dilution, sub-3% yield, and successive severe dividend cuts represent a fundamental strategy mismatch for income investors. Not recommended for new dividend strategy positions as the company's transition prioritizes capital appreciation over stable income generation.
Sector Context
Merlin Properties is a leading Spanish Real Estate Investment Trust (SOCIMI) that acquires and manages commercial real estate, traditionally focusing on offices, logistics, and shopping centers. However, the company is actively pivoting its portfolio toward high-growth digital infrastructure and data centers, which requires massive upfront capital expenditure, structurally shifting its profile away from traditional high-yield REIT income generation.
Temporary Opportunity Identified
Cyclical property revaluations and a capital-intensive strategic pivot towards digital infrastructure, leading to severe dividend cuts and equity dilution to fund expansion.
📊 Strategy Analysis
- • Trades near book value with a P/B of 1.01 and a superficially attractive P/E (TTM) of 10.4x.
- • Underlying operational health remains solid with a 5-year revenue CAGR of 7.1% and a deleveraging trend reducing Net Debt/EBITDA to 4.0x.
⚠ What to Watch
- • The forward dividend yield has fallen to 2.89% (below the 3% minimum threshold) following severe successive cuts, including a 53.3% reduction in 2024.
- • A recent 10% equity dilution (€767.6m capital increase) and an exceptionally low TTM payout ratio of 26.1% represent a structural pivot away from stable income to fund capital-intensive data centers.
- • Forward P/E estimates of 25.5x imply expected near-term earnings compression compared to the historical TTM P/E.
📊 Historical Trends (10 Years)
Powered by EODHDThese charts show how key metrics have evolved over the past decade, helping you identify if the company is improving or deteriorating.
Debt Evolution (Net Debt / EBITDA)
Lower values are better. A declining trend indicates the company is reducing its debt (deleveraging).
Revenue & Earnings Growth
Consistent growth in revenueRevenue
The money a company brings in from selling its products or services. It’s the top line before costs. (blue) and earningsEarnings (Profit)
What’s left after expenses. Positive earnings mean the business made a profit; negative means a loss. (green) indicates a healthy business. Look for upward trends and recoveries after temporary dips.
Dividend Sustainability (FCF vs Dividends Paid)
Free cash flowFree Cash Flow
Cash left after the company pays for running the business and maintaining it. Often used to fund dividends, pay debt, or buy back shares. (FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., blue) should cover dividends paidDividends Paid
Cash the company paid out to shareholders. It’s not guaranteed and can change over time. (green). If dividends consistently exceed FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., the dividend may be at risk.
Analysis date: 2026-04-05
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.