Gecina SA
🇫🇷 GFC.PA · Paris · FR0010040865
Real Estate
EUR 69.75 price at analysis
Scores
Key Metrics
Powered by EODHDP/E (TTM)
11.6
P/E (Price-to-Earnings)Shows how much investors pay for each $1 of profit. We display the TTM P/E (Trailing Twelve Months) which uses actual earnings from the last 4 quarters. This is more reliable than Forward P/E which uses analyst estimates.
Calculation: 69.75 ÷ 6.03 = 11.6
TTM period through: 2025-12-31
Forward P/E (estimated): 10.2
Based on analyst estimates
Reference: Provider P/E (Trailing): 11.6
Yield (Fwd)
7.89%
Dividend YieldThe Forward yield (Fwd) shows the next announced annual dividend / current price — what you'd earn going forward. The Trailing yield (TTM) in the tooltip shows dividends actually paid in the last 12 months. Forward is shown as primary because it reflects the company's current commitment to shareholders.
Trailing Yield (TTM): 7.98%
Net Debt/EBITDA (TTM)
12.3x
Latest quarter: 41.7x
Net Debt / EBITDAA leverage ratio showing how many years of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) it would take to repay net debt. EBITDA approximates operating cash generation. Lower ratios (e.g., <3x) are generally safer; higher (e.g., >5x) may indicate more financial risk.
TTM through: 2025-12-31
Latest quarter (2025-12-31): 41.7x
The quarterly value can spike when quarterly EBITDA is very low (e.g., one-time charges).
Quick guide: <2x manageable, >4x can be risky (sector-dependent).
Payout (Fwd)
91.2%
Payout RatioDividends as a percentage of earnings. The Forward payout (Fwd) uses the announced dividend divided by actual past earnings (TTM) — it tells you if the company can afford what it promised. Very high payouts can be risky, especially if profits fall.
Announced dividend / actual earnings (TTM)
Payout (TTM): 90.0%
Cash Flow Payout (TTM): 84.2%
FCF Coverage (TTM): -1.22x
ROE
4.3%
ROE (Return on Equity)A profitability measure: how much profit is generated from shareholders’ equity. Higher isn’t always better if it comes from high debt.
EV/EBITDA
21.5x
EV/EBITDAA valuation ratio that compares total business value (including debt) to EBITDA. Lower can mean cheaper, but context matters.
Summary
Gecina is a high-quality French real estate investment trust holding prime Parisian assets with highly predictable rental cash flows. The recent statutory losses represent a textbook temporary problem driven entirely by non-cash property revaluations, masking robust underlying operational performance. Trading well below our fair value estimate at a 51% discount to book value (P/B 0.49) with an 8.0% yield, this places the stock in the OPTIMAL quadrant. Worth considering for new positions at current levels to capture both high income and significant price recovery potential.
Sector Context
Gecina SA is a premier French Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) that owns, manages, and develops a high-quality portfolio of primarily Parisian office and residential assets. As a REIT, it is legally required to distribute the vast majority of its net income as dividends, which explains the persistently high payout ratios, while benefiting from stable, inflation-linked rental income streams.
Temporary Opportunity Identified
Significant statutory net losses in 2023 were driven entirely by non-cash property revaluations due to the high-interest-rate environment, masking the company's strong, positive operating cash flow.
📊 Strategy Analysis
- • Trading at an exceptional 51% discount to book value (P/B 0.49), providing a substantial margin of safety.
- • Valuation at P/E 11.56 falls well within the ideal 8-15x strategy sweet spot.
- • Attractive 8.0% dividend yield with a 90% payout ratio, which is standard and legally required for REIT structures.
- • Demonstrated deleveraging trend, successfully reducing Net Debt/EBITDA from 14.6x in 2019 to 12.3x currently.
⚠ What to Watch
- • Negative Free Cash Flow (-€429.9M) limits organic capital flexibility and may require continued reliance on asset disposals.
- • While the Debt/Equity ratio is a healthy 0.65, Net Debt/EBITDA of 12.26x remains elevated and requires careful refinancing management.
- • Broader macroeconomic headwinds and 'higher for longer' interest rate fears continue to keep European real estate valuations suppressed.
📊 Historical Trends (10 Years)
Powered by EODHDThese charts show how key metrics have evolved over the past decade, helping you identify if the company is improving or deteriorating.
Debt Evolution (Net Debt / EBITDA)
Lower values are better. A declining trend indicates the company is reducing its debt (deleveraging).
Revenue & Earnings Growth
Consistent growth in revenueRevenue
The money a company brings in from selling its products or services. It’s the top line before costs. (blue) and earningsEarnings (Profit)
What’s left after expenses. Positive earnings mean the business made a profit; negative means a loss. (green) indicates a healthy business. Look for upward trends and recoveries after temporary dips.
Dividend Sustainability (FCF vs Dividends Paid)
Free cash flowFree Cash Flow
Cash left after the company pays for running the business and maintaining it. Often used to fund dividends, pay debt, or buy back shares. (FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., blue) should cover dividends paidDividends Paid
Cash the company paid out to shareholders. It’s not guaranteed and can change over time. (green). If dividends consistently exceed FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., the dividend may be at risk.
Analysis date: 2026-04-04
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.