FDJ United
🇫🇷 FDJ.PA · Paris · FR0013451333
Consumer
EUR 25.93 price at analysis
Scores
Key Metrics
Powered by EODHDP/E (TTM)
27.3
P/E (Price-to-Earnings)Shows how much investors pay for each $1 of profit. We display the TTM P/E (Trailing Twelve Months) which uses actual earnings from the last 4 quarters. This is more reliable than Forward P/E which uses analyst estimates.
Calculation: 25.93 ÷ 0.95 = 27.3
TTM period through: 2025-12-31
Forward P/E (estimated): 9.5
Based on analyst estimates
Reference: Provider P/E (Trailing): 27.4
Yield (Fwd)
8.10%
Dividend YieldThe Forward yield (Fwd) shows the next announced annual dividend / current price — what you'd earn going forward. The Trailing yield (TTM) in the tooltip shows dividends actually paid in the last 12 months. Forward is shown as primary because it reflects the company's current commitment to shareholders.
Trailing Yield (TTM): 8.13%
Net Debt/EBITDA (TTM)
1.9x
Latest quarter: 3.7x
Net Debt / EBITDAA leverage ratio showing how many years of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) it would take to repay net debt. EBITDA approximates operating cash generation. Lower ratios (e.g., <3x) are generally safer; higher (e.g., >5x) may indicate more financial risk.
TTM through: 2025-12-31
Latest quarter (2025-12-31): 3.7x
The quarterly value can spike when quarterly EBITDA is very low (e.g., one-time charges).
Quick guide: <2x manageable, >4x can be risky (sector-dependent).
Payout (Fwd)
221.0%
Payout RatioDividends as a percentage of earnings. The Forward payout (Fwd) uses the announced dividend divided by actual past earnings (TTM) — it tells you if the company can afford what it promised. Very high payouts can be risky, especially if profits fall.
Announced dividend / actual earnings (TTM)
Payout (TTM): 215.3%
Cash Flow Payout (TTM): 49.5%
FCF Coverage (TTM): 1.31x
ROE
16.2%
ROE (Return on Equity)A profitability measure: how much profit is generated from shareholders’ equity. Higher isn’t always better if it comes from high debt.
EV/EBITDA
7.0x
EV/EBITDAA valuation ratio that compares total business value (including debt) to EBITDA. Lower can mean cheaper, but context matters.
Summary
FDJ operates a highly profitable, state-backed monopoly controlling France's lottery and retail sports betting. The recent stock weakness driven by regulatory concerns and analyst downgrades presents a classic temporary problem, temporarily inflating the TTM P/E to 27.3x while the Forward P/E sits at an attractive 9.5x. While trading at €25.93—above the TTM-depressed fair value estimate of €14-17—the stock is worth considering for new positions based on its recovery potential and exceptional 8.1% yield, safely covered by a 49% cash flow payout ratio.
Sector Context
FDJ operates France's state-backed monopoly for lotteries and retail sports betting, generating revenue through ticket sales and betting margins. While technically a consumer discretionary stock, its monopolistic position and the habitual nature of its products provide highly resilient, utility-like cash flows ideal for dividend investing.
Temporary Opportunity Identified
Recent earnings slips, regulatory scrutiny, and analyst downgrades have caused a sharp price drop and temporarily inflated the TTM P/E to 27.3x, masking a strong Forward P/E of 9.5x.
📊 Strategy Analysis
- • State-backed monopoly position provides an exceptional competitive moat, supporting strong historical EBITDA margins of 24.5%.
- • The 8.1% dividend yield offers substantial income and remains safely covered by a 49% cash flow payout ratio, despite temporary earnings pressure.
- • Forward P/E of 9.5x indicates the market expects strong earnings recovery, making the recent price drop to €25.93 a compelling temporary opportunity.
⚠ What to Watch
- • J.P. Morgan's double downgrade and recent regulatory hits highlight the ongoing political and taxation risks inherent to state-regulated gaming.
- • TTM P/E has spiked to 27.3x due to recent earnings slips, requiring confidence in the new leadership's ability to execute and normalize margins.
- • Net Debt to EBITDA has increased to 1.89x from historical negative leverage, which warrants monitoring despite remaining well below the 3.0x strategy threshold.
📊 Historical Trends (10 Years)
Powered by EODHDThese charts show how key metrics have evolved over the past decade, helping you identify if the company is improving or deteriorating.
Debt Evolution (Net Debt / EBITDA)
Lower values are better. A declining trend indicates the company is reducing its debt (deleveraging).
Revenue & Earnings Growth
Consistent growth in revenueRevenue
The money a company brings in from selling its products or services. It’s the top line before costs. (blue) and earningsEarnings (Profit)
What’s left after expenses. Positive earnings mean the business made a profit; negative means a loss. (green) indicates a healthy business. Look for upward trends and recoveries after temporary dips.
Dividend Sustainability (FCF vs Dividends Paid)
Free cash flowFree Cash Flow
Cash left after the company pays for running the business and maintaining it. Often used to fund dividends, pay debt, or buy back shares. (FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., blue) should cover dividends paidDividends Paid
Cash the company paid out to shareholders. It’s not guaranteed and can change over time. (green). If dividends consistently exceed FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., the dividend may be at risk.
Analysis date: 2026-04-05
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.