Deutsche Post AG
🇩🇪 DHL.XETRA · Frankfurt · DE0005552004
Infrastructure
EUR 46.12 price at analysis
Scores
Key Metrics
Powered by EODHDP/E (TTM)
15.2
P/E (Price-to-Earnings)Shows how much investors pay for each $1 of profit. We display the TTM P/E (Trailing Twelve Months) which uses actual earnings from the last 4 quarters. This is more reliable than Forward P/E which uses analyst estimates.
Calculation: 46.12 ÷ 3.04 = 15.2
TTM period through: 2025-12-31
Forward P/E (estimated): 14.6
Based on analyst estimates
Reference: Provider P/E (Trailing): 15.2
Yield (Fwd)
4.12%
Dividend YieldThe Forward yield (Fwd) shows the next announced annual dividend / current price — what you'd earn going forward. The Trailing yield (TTM) in the tooltip shows dividends actually paid in the last 12 months. Forward is shown as primary because it reflects the company's current commitment to shareholders.
Trailing Yield (TTM): 4.08%
Net Debt/EBITDA (TTM)
2.5x
Latest quarter: 7.2x
Net Debt / EBITDAA leverage ratio showing how many years of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) it would take to repay net debt. EBITDA approximates operating cash generation. Lower ratios (e.g., <3x) are generally safer; higher (e.g., >5x) may indicate more financial risk.
TTM through: 2025-12-31
Latest quarter (2025-12-31): 7.2x
The quarterly value can spike when quarterly EBITDA is very low (e.g., one-time charges).
Quick guide: <2x manageable, >4x can be risky (sector-dependent).
Payout (Fwd)
62.4%
Payout RatioDividends as a percentage of earnings. The Forward payout (Fwd) uses the announced dividend divided by actual past earnings (TTM) — it tells you if the company can afford what it promised. Very high payouts can be risky, especially if profits fall.
Announced dividend / actual earnings (TTM)
Payout (TTM): 60.6%
Cash Flow Payout (TTM): 25.3%
FCF Coverage (TTM): 2.64x
ROE
15.8%
ROE (Return on Equity)A profitability measure: how much profit is generated from shareholders’ equity. Higher isn’t always better if it comes from high debt.
EV/EBITDA
6.7x
EV/EBITDAA valuation ratio that compares total business value (including debt) to EBITDA. Lower can mean cheaper, but context matters.
Summary
Deutsche Post (DHL) is a dominant global logistics infrastructure leader with a virtually unbreachable economic moat and an exceptional dividend track record. Trading at €46.12, slightly above standard fair value but well below our monopoly fair value estimate of €54.79, it offers attractive upside alongside a highly secure 4.1% yield. Worth considering for new positions, as current macroeconomic headwinds and post-pandemic volume normalizations offer a reasonable entry point for long-term dividend investors.
Sector Context
Deutsche Post (DHL) operates a massive global logistics network and the primary postal service in Germany, generating revenue through parcel delivery, freight, and supply chain management. In the context of dividend investing, its infrastructure-like domestic postal monopoly and dominant position in the global logistics oligopoly provide the highly resilient, predictable cash flows essential for long-term dividend stability.
Temporary Opportunity Identified
Cyclical normalization of global shipping volumes post-pandemic, compounded by immediate macroeconomic headwinds including elevated oil prices and geopolitical supply chain disruptions.
📊 Strategy Analysis
- • Exceptional dividend safety with a 4.1% yield heavily covered by free cash flow (cash flow payout ratio of just 25.3%).
- • Trading at €46.12, below the monopoly fair value upper bound of €54.79, offering up to 18% upside to full valuation for a global logistics leader.
- • Flawless 10-year dividend history with a 9.4% CAGR and zero cuts, demonstrating a strong management commitment to shareholder returns.
- • Net Debt/EBITDA of 2.49x remains comfortably below the strict 3.0x strategy threshold despite recent multi-billion euro capital investments in healthcare logistics.
⚠ What to Watch
- • The 5-year EPS CAGR of -5.3% reflects ongoing cyclical normalization from pandemic-era e-commerce peaks and sluggish global trade volumes.
- • Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and sustained high oil prices (> $100/barrel) could temporarily compress operating margins in the near term.
📊 Historical Trends (10 Years)
Powered by EODHDThese charts show how key metrics have evolved over the past decade, helping you identify if the company is improving or deteriorating.
Debt Evolution (Net Debt / EBITDA)
Lower values are better. A declining trend indicates the company is reducing its debt (deleveraging).
Revenue & Earnings Growth
Consistent growth in revenueRevenue
The money a company brings in from selling its products or services. It’s the top line before costs. (blue) and earningsEarnings (Profit)
What’s left after expenses. Positive earnings mean the business made a profit; negative means a loss. (green) indicates a healthy business. Look for upward trends and recoveries after temporary dips.
Dividend Sustainability (FCF vs Dividends Paid)
Free cash flowFree Cash Flow
Cash left after the company pays for running the business and maintaining it. Often used to fund dividends, pay debt, or buy back shares. (FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., blue) should cover dividends paidDividends Paid
Cash the company paid out to shareholders. It’s not guaranteed and can change over time. (green). If dividends consistently exceed FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., the dividend may be at risk.
Analysis date: 2026-04-04
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.