Vinci S.A.
🇫🇷 DG.PA · Paris · FR0000125486
Infrastructure
EUR 131.60 price at analysis
Scores
Key Metrics
Powered by EODHDP/E (TTM)
15.2
P/E (Price-to-Earnings)Shows how much investors pay for each $1 of profit. We display the TTM P/E (Trailing Twelve Months) which uses actual earnings from the last 4 quarters. This is more reliable than Forward P/E which uses analyst estimates.
Calculation: 131.60 ÷ 8.65 = 15.2
TTM period through: 2025-12-31
Forward P/E (estimated): 14.2
Based on analyst estimates
Reference: Provider P/E (Trailing): 15.2
Yield (Fwd)
3.80%
Dividend YieldThe Forward yield (Fwd) shows the next announced annual dividend / current price — what you'd earn going forward. The Trailing yield (TTM) in the tooltip shows dividends actually paid in the last 12 months. Forward is shown as primary because it reflects the company's current commitment to shareholders.
Trailing Yield (TTM): 3.77%
Net Debt/EBITDA (TTM)
1.6x
Latest quarter: 2.7x
Net Debt / EBITDAA leverage ratio showing how many years of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) it would take to repay net debt. EBITDA approximates operating cash generation. Lower ratios (e.g., <3x) are generally safer; higher (e.g., >5x) may indicate more financial risk.
TTM through: 2025-12-31
Latest quarter (2025-12-31): 2.7x
The quarterly value can spike when quarterly EBITDA is very low (e.g., one-time charges).
Quick guide: <2x manageable, >4x can be risky (sector-dependent).
Payout (Fwd)
57.8%
Payout RatioDividends as a percentage of earnings. The Forward payout (Fwd) uses the announced dividend divided by actual past earnings (TTM) — it tells you if the company can afford what it promised. Very high payouts can be risky, especially if profits fall.
Announced dividend / actual earnings (TTM)
Payout (TTM): 54.4%
Cash Flow Payout (TTM): 22.4%
FCF Coverage (TTM): 3.01x
ROE
15.4%
ROE (Return on Equity)A profitability measure: how much profit is generated from shareholders’ equity. Higher isn’t always better if it comes from high debt.
EV/EBITDA
6.8x
EV/EBITDAA valuation ratio that compares total business value (including debt) to EBITDA. Lower can mean cheaper, but context matters.
Summary
Vinci is a high-quality global infrastructure leader with a highly secure dividend backed by monopolistic toll road and airport assets. Trading at €131.60 (P/E 15.2), the stock sits comfortably below our monopoly fair value estimate of up to €155.64, representing roughly 18% upside to fair value. The 3.77% yield is exceptionally well-covered by free cash flow, making it worth considering for new positions as a core infrastructure holding.
Sector Context
Vinci S.A. is a global leader in concessions, energy solutions, and construction, generating revenue primarily through the operation of toll roads, airports, and large-scale infrastructure projects. In the context of dividend investing, infrastructure assets function as regulated or natural monopolies with inflation-linked pricing, providing highly predictable, recession-resistant cash flows that comfortably support long-term dividend growth.
Temporary Opportunity Identified
General market sell-off and flight to cash driven by global geopolitical tensions (escalating Middle East conflict) and inflation fears, causing the stock to dip below its 50-day moving average despite intact underlying fundamentals.
📊 Strategy Analysis
- • Valuation is attractive for a global infrastructure monopoly, trading at €131.60, which is well below our monopoly-adjusted fair value upper bound of €155.64.
- • Exceptional dividend safety profile, with the 3.77% yield supported by a very conservative 22.4% free cash flow payout ratio and 3.0x FCF coverage.
- • Strong balance sheet management for a capital-intensive sector, maintaining a Net Debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.57x, comfortably below the 3x strategy threshold.
- • Recent $1.6 billion strategic acquisition of a 9-highway toll portfolio in India demonstrates robust capital allocation and expansion into high-growth markets without straining the balance sheet.
⚠ What to Watch
- • Persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and elevated interest rates from central banks could increase long-term refinancing costs for future capital-intensive infrastructure development.
- • Escalating geopolitical tensions and fluctuating oil prices above $100 per barrel present a lingering cyclical risk to consumer travel volumes at the company's airport concessions.
📊 Historical Trends (10 Years)
Powered by EODHDThese charts show how key metrics have evolved over the past decade, helping you identify if the company is improving or deteriorating.
Debt Evolution (Net Debt / EBITDA)
Lower values are better. A declining trend indicates the company is reducing its debt (deleveraging).
Revenue & Earnings Growth
Consistent growth in revenueRevenue
The money a company brings in from selling its products or services. It’s the top line before costs. (blue) and earningsEarnings (Profit)
What’s left after expenses. Positive earnings mean the business made a profit; negative means a loss. (green) indicates a healthy business. Look for upward trends and recoveries after temporary dips.
Dividend Sustainability (FCF vs Dividends Paid)
Free cash flowFree Cash Flow
Cash left after the company pays for running the business and maintaining it. Often used to fund dividends, pay debt, or buy back shares. (FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., blue) should cover dividends paidDividends Paid
Cash the company paid out to shareholders. It’s not guaranteed and can change over time. (green). If dividends consistently exceed FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., the dividend may be at risk.
Analysis date: 2026-04-04
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.