BNP Paribas SA
🇫🇷 BNP.PA · Paris · FR0000131104
Bank
EUR 83.30 price at analysis
Scores
Key Metrics
Powered by EODHDP/E (TTM)
7.6
P/E (Price-to-Earnings)Shows how much investors pay for each $1 of profit. We display the TTM P/E (Trailing Twelve Months) which uses actual earnings from the last 4 quarters. This is more reliable than Forward P/E which uses analyst estimates.
Calculation: 83.30 ÷ 10.92 = 7.6
TTM period through: 2025-12-31
Forward P/E (estimated): 7.1
Based on analyst estimates
Reference: Provider P/E (Trailing): 8.1
Yield (Fwd)
11.94%
Dividend YieldThe Forward yield (Fwd) shows the next announced annual dividend / current price — what you'd earn going forward. The Trailing yield (TTM) in the tooltip shows dividends actually paid in the last 12 months. Forward is shown as primary because it reflects the company's current commitment to shareholders.
Trailing Yield (TTM): 6.04%
Net Debt/EBITDA (TTM)
25.9x
Latest quarter: 46.9x
Net Debt / EBITDAA leverage ratio showing how many years of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) it would take to repay net debt. EBITDA approximates operating cash generation. Lower ratios (e.g., <3x) are generally safer; higher (e.g., >5x) may indicate more financial risk.
TTM through: 2025-12-31
Latest quarter (2025-12-31): 46.9x
The quarterly value can spike when quarterly EBITDA is very low (e.g., one-time charges).
Quick guide: <2x manageable, >4x can be risky (sector-dependent).
Payout (Fwd)
91.1%
Payout RatioDividends as a percentage of earnings. The Forward payout (Fwd) uses the announced dividend divided by actual past earnings (TTM) — it tells you if the company can afford what it promised. Very high payouts can be risky, especially if profits fall.
Announced dividend / actual earnings (TTM)
ROE
9.7%
ROE (Return on Equity)A profitability measure: how much profit is generated from shareholders’ equity. Higher isn’t always better if it comes from high debt.
Summary
BNP Paribas is a systemically important global bank providing essential financial services across Europe with a highly resilient earnings trajectory. Trading at €83.30 vs our blended fair value estimate of €100-115 (based on normalized P/E multiples of 9-10x), this represents an attractive 20-38% upside to fair value. Worth considering for new positions at current levels, offering an excellent 6.0% yield while waiting for European banking multiples to normalize.
Sector Context
BNP Paribas is a systemically important global bank that provides essential retail, corporate, and institutional banking services across Europe and internationally. In the banking sector, standard debt metrics like Debt/EBITDA do not apply; high Debt/Equity ratios are structurally normal because customer deposits are recorded as liabilities, making the focus shift toward capital adequacy, net interest margins, and asset quality.
Temporary Opportunity Identified
Geopolitical uncertainty, persistent inflation fears, and broad European macro pessimism are artificially compressing valuation multiples despite strong underlying earnings growth. Additionally, the historical 2020 dividend cut was a temporary, sector-wide ECB regulatory mandate rather than a fundamental failure.
📊 Strategy Analysis
- • Trading at a highly attractive P/E of 7.63, well below the optimal 8-15x range, suggesting the market is over-discounting European macro risks compared to the bank's earnings power.
- • Offers a robust 6.04% TTM dividend yield backed by a 17.2% 10-year dividend CAGR, making it highly attractive for income generation.
- • Strong fundamental trajectory demonstrated by a 133% revenue expansion over the past decade and a 5-year EPS CAGR of 7.5%.
- • Operating as a systemically important European bank, its high Debt/Equity ratio of 6.45x is standard for the sector's deposit-driven model, supported by an ROE approaching 10%.
⚠ What to Watch
- • The TTM payout ratio of 71.72% sits marginally above the ideal 40-70% threshold, meaning slightly less capital is retained for internal growth.
- • Ongoing European macroeconomic headwinds, including inflation risks driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions, could temporarily pressure loan demand and credit quality.
📊 Historical Trends (10 Years)
Powered by EODHDThese charts show how key metrics have evolved over the past decade, helping you identify if the company is improving or deteriorating.
Debt Evolution (Net Debt / EBITDA)
Lower values are better. A declining trend indicates the company is reducing its debt (deleveraging).
Revenue & Earnings Growth
Consistent growth in revenueRevenue
The money a company brings in from selling its products or services. It’s the top line before costs. (blue) and earningsEarnings (Profit)
What’s left after expenses. Positive earnings mean the business made a profit; negative means a loss. (green) indicates a healthy business. Look for upward trends and recoveries after temporary dips.
Dividend Sustainability (FCF vs Dividends Paid)
Free cash flowFree Cash Flow
Cash left after the company pays for running the business and maintaining it. Often used to fund dividends, pay debt, or buy back shares. (FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., blue) should cover dividends paidDividends Paid
Cash the company paid out to shareholders. It’s not guaranteed and can change over time. (green). If dividends consistently exceed FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., the dividend may be at risk.
Analysis date: 2026-04-04
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.