Air Products and Chemicals Inc
🇺🇸 APD · NYSE/NASDAQ · US0091581068
Materials
USD 278.62 price at analysis
Scores
Key Metrics
Powered by EODHDP/E (TTM)
29.5
P/E (Price-to-Earnings)Shows how much investors pay for each $1 of profit. We display the TTM P/E (Trailing Twelve Months) which uses actual earnings from the last 4 quarters. This is more reliable than Forward P/E which uses analyst estimates.
Calculation: 278.62 ÷ 9.45 = 29.5
TTM period through: 2026-03-31
Forward P/E (estimated): 22.2
Based on analyst estimates
Reference: Provider P/E (Trailing): 30.5
Yield (Fwd)
2.60%
Dividend YieldThe Forward yield (Fwd) shows the next announced annual dividend / current price — what you'd earn going forward. The Trailing yield (TTM) in the tooltip shows dividends actually paid in the last 12 months. Forward is shown as primary because it reflects the company's current commitment to shareholders.
Trailing Yield (TTM): 2.48%
Div. Growth (5Y CAGR)
7.4%
Growth Streak
9 yrs
Consecutive years of increase
Net Debt/EBITDA (TTM)
4.0x
Latest quarter: 15.4x
Net Debt / EBITDAA leverage ratio showing how many years of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) it would take to repay net debt. EBITDA approximates operating cash generation. Lower ratios (e.g., <3x) are generally safer; higher (e.g., >5x) may indicate more financial risk.
TTM through: 2026-03-31
Latest quarter (2026-03-31): 15.4x
The quarterly value can spike when quarterly EBITDA is very low (e.g., one-time charges).
Quick guide: <2x manageable, >4x can be risky (sector-dependent).
Payout (Fwd)
76.6%
Payout RatioDividends as a percentage of earnings. The Forward payout (Fwd) uses the announced dividend divided by actual past earnings (TTM) — it tells you if the company can afford what it promised. Very high payouts can be risky, especially if profits fall.
Announced dividend / actual earnings (TTM)
Payout (TTM): 75.6%
Cash Flow Payout (TTM): 38.7%
FCF Coverage (TTM): 0.70x
ROE
12.3%
ROE (Return on Equity)A profitability measure: how much profit is generated from shareholders’ equity. Higher isn’t always better if it comes from high debt.
EV/EBITDA
18.0x
EV/EBITDAA valuation ratio that compares total business value (including debt) to EBITDA. Lower can mean cheaper, but context matters.
📊 What Changed From Last Analysis?
Moved from WATCH to BELOW THRESHOLD: Applied the strategy mismatch penalty to the Quality Score as the $2.3B project cancellation charge confirms severe execution and regulatory risks in the company's transition to complex green/blue hydrogen technologies, making it unsuitable for conservative dividend strategies at current elevated valuations.
Summary
Air Products operates a high-quality industrial gas oligopoly, but its massive, capital-intensive transition to blue and green hydrogen introduces severe execution and regulatory risks, making it a strategy mismatch for conservative dividend portfolios. The recent $2.3 billion charge for canceled projects highlights these structural challenges, and with the stock trading at an expensive Forward P/E of 22x while yielding only 2.6%, the risks heavily outweigh the potential returns. Not recommended for new positions, as better risk-adjusted income opportunities exist in more stable essential services.
Sector Context
Air Products and Chemicals is a global leader in the industrial gas sector, operating in an oligopoly where it supplies essential gases (like oxygen, nitrogen, and hydrogen) to major manufacturing and energy clients. While industrial gases typically provide highly stable, utility-like recurring revenue through decades-long contracts, the sector is heavily capital-intensive and currently facing severe structural execution risks as it transitions from traditional carbon-intensive production to complex low-carbon hydrogen alternatives.
Temporary Opportunity Identified
The company reported a massive GAAP net loss in early 2025 driven by a $2.3 billion one-time after-tax charge to cancel three major U.S. projects and implement cost reductions. While this severely distorts trailing earnings metrics, the underlying strategic pivot causing these cancellations introduces long-term execution risk.
📊 Strategy Analysis
- • Maintains a strong competitive moat as part of a global industrial gas oligopoly, supported by highly defensive 15 to 30-year 'on-site' tonnage contracts.
- • Excellent historical dividend track record with 9 consecutive years of growth and an underlying Cash Flow Payout ratio of 38.7%, indicating the core business remains cash-generative despite GAAP losses.
⚠ What to Watch
- • Severe strategy mismatch for conservative dividend investors due to a highly capital-intensive and risky transition to blue/green hydrogen, recently resulting in a $2.3 billion write-down after IRA 45V regulatory changes forced major project cancellations.
- • Valuation remains highly elevated with a Forward P/E of 22.22x, significantly exceeding our target 8-15x range and sitting well above the fair value monopoly upper bound of $170.
- • Current forward dividend yield of 2.60% falls below the strategy's strict 3.0% minimum threshold for income generation.
- • Net Debt/EBITDA is elevated at 3.99x, sitting right at the 4.0x caution threshold due to massive ongoing multibillion-dollar project commitments.
📊 Historical Trends (10 Years)
Powered by EODHDThese charts show how key metrics have evolved over the past decade, helping you identify if the company is improving or deteriorating.
Debt Evolution (Net Debt / EBITDA)
Lower values are better. A declining trend indicates the company is reducing its debt (deleveraging).
Revenue & Earnings Growth
Consistent growth in revenueRevenue
The money a company brings in from selling its products or services. It’s the top line before costs. (blue) and earningsEarnings (Profit)
What’s left after expenses. Positive earnings mean the business made a profit; negative means a loss. (green) indicates a healthy business. Look for upward trends and recoveries after temporary dips.
Dividend Sustainability (FCF vs Dividends Paid)
Free cash flowFree Cash Flow
Cash left after the company pays for running the business and maintaining it. Often used to fund dividends, pay debt, or buy back shares. (FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., blue) should cover dividends paidDividends Paid
Cash the company paid out to shareholders. It’s not guaranteed and can change over time. (green). If dividends consistently exceed FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., the dividend may be at risk.
Analysis date: 2026-05-30
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.