Repsol S.A.
🇪🇸 REP.MC · Madrid · ES0173516115
Energy
EUR 24.27 price at analysis
Scores
Key Metrics
Powered by EODHDP/E (TTM)
15.0
P/E (Price-to-Earnings)Shows how much investors pay for each $1 of profit. We display the TTM P/E (Trailing Twelve Months) which uses actual earnings from the last 4 quarters. This is more reliable than Forward P/E which uses analyst estimates.
Calculation: 24.27 ÷ 1.62 = 15.0
TTM period through: 2025-12-31
Forward P/E (estimated): 10.6
Based on analyst estimates
Reference: Provider P/E (Trailing): 15.0
Yield (Fwd)
4.53%
Dividend YieldThe Forward yield (Fwd) shows the next announced annual dividend / current price — what you'd earn going forward. The Trailing yield (TTM) in the tooltip shows dividends actually paid in the last 12 months. Forward is shown as primary because it reflects the company's current commitment to shareholders.
Trailing Yield (TTM): 4.50%
Net Debt/EBITDA (TTM)
2.6x
Latest quarter: 9.5x
Net Debt / EBITDAA leverage ratio showing how many years of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) it would take to repay net debt. EBITDA approximates operating cash generation. Lower ratios (e.g., <3x) are generally safer; higher (e.g., >5x) may indicate more financial risk.
TTM through: 2025-12-31
Latest quarter (2025-12-31): 9.5x
The quarterly value can spike when quarterly EBITDA is very low (e.g., one-time charges).
Quick guide: <2x manageable, >4x can be risky (sector-dependent).
Payout (Fwd)
67.9%
Payout RatioDividends as a percentage of earnings. The Forward payout (Fwd) uses the announced dividend divided by actual past earnings (TTM) — it tells you if the company can afford what it promised. Very high payouts can be risky, especially if profits fall.
Announced dividend / actual earnings (TTM)
Payout (TTM): 63.0%
Cash Flow Payout (TTM): 24.1%
FCF Coverage (TTM): 1.01x
ROE
7.4%
ROE (Return on Equity)A profitability measure: how much profit is generated from shareholders’ equity. Higher isn’t always better if it comes from high debt.
EV/EBITDA
5.5x
EV/EBITDAA valuation ratio that compares total business value (including debt) to EBITDA. Lower can mean cheaper, but context matters.
Summary
Repsol is a well-managed integrated energy company, but the structural shift away from fossil fuels creates long-term dividend sustainability concerns. While the 4.5% dividend is well-covered by robust cash flows and the recent quarterly loss was driven by one-off charges, the energy transition execution risks make this unsuitable for conservative dividend strategies. Better opportunities exist in more stable, essential service businesses with proven business models.
Sector Context
Repsol operates as an integrated global energy company, involved in oil and gas exploration, production, refining, and marketing. While the traditional energy sector can provide high yields and inflation protection during commodity booms, the structural transition toward renewable energy introduces significant execution risk, massive capital intensity, and long-term obsolescence risks that misalign with conservative 'forever' dividend strategies.
Temporary Opportunity Identified
The Q4 2024 net loss (-€36M) was driven by significant one-time 'Special Items' (-€867M) and temporary cyclical commodity weakness, obscuring otherwise strong cash flow fundamentals.
📊 Strategy Analysis
- • Trading at an attractive valuation with a TTM P/E of 14.98 and a Forward P/E of 10.59.
- • The 4.50% dividend yield is exceptionally well-covered by robust free cash flow generation, boasting a low 24.14% cash flow payout ratio.
- • Recent Q4 negative earnings were primarily driven by €867 million in temporary, one-time special charges rather than fundamental operational degradation.
- • The current macroeconomic environment, featuring crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, provides a strong near-term tailwind for cash generation.
⚠ What to Watch
- • The structural energy transition away from fossil fuels introduces significant execution risk and capital expenditure requirements that are unsuitable for conservative long-term dividend strategies.
- • A history of highly cyclical earnings, including multiple loss years (2019, 2020) and three strategic dividend cuts in the past decade, undermines long-term predictability.
- • Net Debt/EBITDA has increased steadily to 2.57x (up from 1.3x in 2019), reducing financial flexibility during a highly capital-intensive transition period.
📊 Historical Trends (10 Years)
Powered by EODHDThese charts show how key metrics have evolved over the past decade, helping you identify if the company is improving or deteriorating.
Debt Evolution (Net Debt / EBITDA)
Lower values are better. A declining trend indicates the company is reducing its debt (deleveraging).
Revenue & Earnings Growth
Consistent growth in revenueRevenue
The money a company brings in from selling its products or services. It’s the top line before costs. (blue) and earningsEarnings (Profit)
What’s left after expenses. Positive earnings mean the business made a profit; negative means a loss. (green) indicates a healthy business. Look for upward trends and recoveries after temporary dips.
Dividend Sustainability (FCF vs Dividends Paid)
Free cash flowFree Cash Flow
Cash left after the company pays for running the business and maintaining it. Often used to fund dividends, pay debt, or buy back shares. (FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., blue) should cover dividends paidDividends Paid
Cash the company paid out to shareholders. It’s not guaranteed and can change over time. (green). If dividends consistently exceed FCFFCF (Free Cash Flow)
Short for Free Cash Flow: cash left after operating needs and maintenance spending., the dividend may be at risk.
Analysis date: 2026-04-05
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.